2022美国高中数模赛B题翻译及思路

思路：根据附件中的数据，建立二氧化碳浓度回归模型，参数为时间，取时间变化预报未来大气中CO2的浓度水平。

B：

二氧化碳与全球变暖

在工业革命之前，大气中的二氧化碳（CO2）一直保持在百万分之280（ppm）左右。2004年3月，大气中的CO2浓度达到377.7

ppm，这是迄今为止最大的10年平均增长。[1] 根据美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）和斯克里普斯海洋研究所（SIO）的科学家，月平均CO2浓度在2022年5月达到峰值421

ppm。[2]经济合作与发展组织（OECD）的一份报告预测，到2050年，CO2浓度将达到685 ppm。[3]

《今日科学》杂志的编辑们要求你们的团队对目前报道的和未来预测的二氧化碳浓度水平做出回应。他们提供了两个数据集（CO2数据集1和Temps数据集2）来帮助您的研究。

要求

1.你同意二氧化碳水平的说法吗？使用CO2数据集1分析CO2变化。

a、 你是否同意2004年3月二氧化碳排放量的增加导致了比以往10年期间观察到的更大的增加？为什么或为什么不？

b、

根据数据拟合各种（不止一种）数学模型，以描述过去和预测未来大气中CO2的浓度水平。

c、

使用您的每一个模型来预测2100年大气中的CO2浓度。您的任何模型是否同意2050年CO2浓度将达到685

ppm的说法和预测？如果到2050年，你的模型预测二氧化碳浓度何时达到685 ppm？

d、 你认为哪种模型最准确？为什么？

2.温度和CO2之间的关系是什么？许多科学家认为，全球变暖与大气中CO2浓度之间存在关系。使用您在第1部分和Temps

Data Set 2中的工作来帮助您比较陆地海洋温度和CO2浓度水平。

a、

建立一个模型来预测未来陆地海洋温度的变化。你的模型预测，与1951-1980年的基准期相比，平均陆地海洋温度将在什么时候变化1.25°C、1.50°C和2°C？

b、

建立一个模型来分析自1959年以来二氧化碳浓度和陆地-海洋温度之间的关系（如果有的话）。解释这种关系或证明没有关系。

c、

将第2.b部分的模型扩展到未来。你的模型在未来有多远是可靠的？您的模型预测未来CO2浓度水平和/或陆地海洋温度的能力有什么问题（如果有）？

3.为《今日科学》准备一篇非技术性文章（最多1页），以解释团队的发现和未来可能的建议

总页数不超过25页的PDF解决方案应包括：

一页摘要表。

目录。

您的完整解决方案。

一页非技术文章。

参考列表。

注：HiMCM竞赛有25页的限制。您提交的所有方面都超过了25页的限制（摘要表、目录、参考列表、文章和任何附录）。

2022 HiMCM

Problem B: CO2 and Global

Warming

Prior

to the Industrial Revolution, carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere was

consistently around 280 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in

the atmosphere reached 377.7 ppm in March of 2004, resulting in the largest

10-year average increase up to that time.[1]According to scientists from National Oceanographic

and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Scripps Institution of Oceanography

(SIO) the monthly mean CO2 concentration level peaked at 421 ppm in May 2022.[2] An Organisation for Economic Co-Operations

and Development (OECD) report predicts a CO2 level of 685 ppm by 2050.[3]

The editors of Scientific

Today magazine have asked your team to address these claims of the current

reported and future predictions of CO2 concentration levels. They provided two

data sets (CO2 Data Set 1& Temps Data Set 2) to assist in

your research.

Requirements

1.

Do you agree with CO2 level claims? Use CO2 Data Set 1to analyze CO2 changes.

a.

Do you agree that the March 2004 increase

of CO2 resulted in a larger increase than observed over any previous 10-year

period? Why or why not?

b.

Fit various (more than one) mathematical

models to the data to describe past, and predict future, concentration levels

of CO2 in the atmosphere.

c.

Use each of your models to predict the CO2

concentrations in the atmosphere in the year 2100. Do any of your models agree

with claims and predictions that the CO2 concentration level will reach 685 ppm

by 2050? If not by 2050, when do your models predict the concentration of CO2

reaching 685 ppm?

d.

Which model do you

consider most accurate? Why?

2.

What’s the relationship between temperature

and CO2? Many scientists

think that there is a relationship between warming global temperatures and the

concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. Use your work in part 1 and Temps

Data Set 2 to assist in your comparison of land-ocean temperatures and CO2

concentration levels.

a.

Build a model to predict future land-ocean

temperatures changes. When does your model predict the average land-ocean

temperature will change by 1.25°C, 1.50°C, and 2°C compared to the base period

of 1951-1980?

b.

Build a model to analyze the relationship

(if any) between CO2 concentrations and land- ocean temperatures since 1959.

Explain the relationship or justify that there is no relationship.

c.

Extend your model from part 2.b. into the

future. How far into the future is your model reliable? What concerns, if any,

do you have with your model’s ability to predict future CO2 concentration levels and/or land-ocean temperatures?

3.

Prepare a non-technical article (1 page maximum) for Scientific Today to

explain in your team’s findings and possible recommendations for the future.

Your PDF solution of no more than 25 total pages should include:

·

One-page Summary Sheet.

·

Table of Contents.

·

Your complete solution.

·

One-page non-technical Article.

·

References list.

Note:The HiMCM Contest has a 25-page

limit. All aspects of your submission count toward the 25-page limit (Summary

Sheet, Table of Contents, Reference List, Article, and any Appendices).

Attachment

2022_HiMCM_Data.xlsx Sheet 1: CO2 Data Set 1

Sheet 2: Temps

Data Set 2

References

[1]

National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration.

NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory. (2022, October). Trends in

atmospheric carbon dioxide [Internet]. /ccgg/trends/data.html.

[2] National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration.

NOAA Research News & Features. (2022, June 3). Carbon dioxide now mare

than 50% higher than pre-industrial levels [Internet]. https:// levels.

[3] Organisation for Economic Co-Operations and Development.

(2012). The OECD environmental outlook to 2050 [Internet]. /env/cc/Outlook%20to%202050_Climate%20Change%20Chapter_HIGLIGH TS-FINA-8pager-UPDATED%20NOV2012.pdf.

CO2 Data Set

1: Annual month of March averages of CO2 expressed

as a mole fraction in dry air, micromole/mol, abbreviated PPM (parts per

million) derived from continuous air samples for the Mauna Loa Observatory,

Hawaii, U.S.A.

Year

PPM

Year

PPM

Year

PPM

1959

315.98

1980

338.76

2001

371.32

1960

316.91

1981

340.12

2002

373.45

1961

317.64

1982

341.48

2003

375.98

1962

318.45

1983

343.15

2004

377.7

1963

318.99

1984

344.87

2005

379.98

1964

319.62

1985

346.35

2006

382.09

1965

320.04

1986

347.61

2007

384.02

1966

321.37

1987

349.31

2008

385.83

1967

322.18

1988

351.69

2009

387.64

1968

323.05

1989

353.2

2010

390.1

1969

324.62

1990

354.45

2011

391.85

1970

325.68

1991

355.7

2012

394.06

1971

326.32

1992

356.54

2013

396.74

1972

327.46

1993

357.21

2014

398.81

1973

329.68

1994

358.96

2015

401.01

1974

330.19

1995

360.97

2016

404.41

1975

331.13

1996

362.74

2017

406.76

1976

332.03

1997

363.88

2018

408.72

1977

333.84

1998

366.84

2019

411.66

1978

335.41

1999

368.54

2020

414.24

1979

336.84

2000

369.71

2021

416.45

Data Source Credit:National

Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) GML Data and Scripps

Institution of Oceanography (SIO).

/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2/co2_annmean_mlo.txt.

Temps Data

Set 2: Global annual mean surface-air temperature

change in degrees Celsius based on land and ocean data compared to the

temperature mean of the base period 1951-1980. For example, in 2021, the global

land and sea temperature was 0.84°C above the temperature mean of the base

period of 1951-1980.

Year

Degrees

C

Year

Degrees

C

Year

Degrees

C

1958

0.06

1980

0.26

2002

0.63

1959

0.03

1981

0.32

2003

0.62

1960

-0.03

1982

0.14

2004

0.53

1961

0.06

1983

0.31

2005

0.67

1962

0.03

1984

0.16

2006

0.63

1963

0.05

1985

0.12

2007

0.66

1964

-0.2

1986

0.18

2008

0.54

1965

-0.11

1987

0.32

2009

0.65

1966

-0.06

1988

0.39

2010

0.72

1967

-0.02

1989

0.27

2011

0.61

1968

-0.08

1990

0.45

2012

0.65

1969

0.05

1991

0.4

2013

0.67

1970

0.03

1992

0.22

2014

0.74

1971

-0.08

1993

0.23

2015

0.89

1972

0.01

1994

0.32

2016

1.01

1973

0.16

1995

0.45

2017

0.92

1974

-0.07

1996

0.33

2018

0.84

1975

-0.01

1997

0.46

2019

0.97

1976

-0.1

1998

0.61

2020

1.02

1977

0.18

1999

0.38

2021

0.84

1978

0.07

2000

0.39

1979

0.16

2001

0.53

Data Source

Credit: National Aeronautics and Space

Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

·

GISTEMP Team, 2022: GISS

Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), version 4. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Dataset accessed 2022-10-18

at data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/.

·

Lenssen, N., G.

Schmidt, J. Hansen, M. Menne, A. Persin, R. Ruedy, and D. Zyss,

2019: Improvements in the GISTEMP uncertainty model. J. Geophys.

Res. Atmos., 124, no. 12, 6307-6326, doi:10.1029/2018JD029522.